Monday, November 12, 2012

Market Commentary for the week of November 12, 2012

Black and white.
And so, we move on.

Not simply the collective “we” of the markets, nor the political parties, nor any special agenda groupings, but, really, the global tapestry which can now divert its attention from American politics and focus once again on capitalism, peace-making and common ground solutions.

I am not a political analyst.  I am a markets strategist and scientist whose proprietary metrics of analysis allow me to zero in on market-related data that reflects both current and future trends that impact upon social, economic, political and philosophical outcomes.

One headline last week proclaimed, for example, “Obama wins, financial markets lose.”  Obviously, this is a subjective “point-of-view” interpretation of the election results.  However, let’s agree that the financial sector fumbled and fell of its own devices in the past decade, spurred on by an incessant desire to manufacture product and profit long after their halcyon days of meaningful moral contribution had ended.  In the end, as a portfolio manager I underweight financials because of their inability to create earnings derived from demand and social consciousnesses.  If anything, the President’s re-election might be a boon to that sector, an invitation for them to free up capital, participate in the free enterprise entrepreneurship Mr. Obama’s opponents so highly covet, and to do so by reviving their operations, their share price, and their moral standing.

Thus, not only might the U.S. financial markets gain by this outcome, but the global markets, too, can begin to bank (figuratively and literally) on common themes that lift people and profits.

You and I.
I have written extensively that economic ideals can be driven by one party or another.  But these ideals are not embodied simply by one man.  In that respect, my metrics show that market behavior cannot be governed or dictated by an individual.  Endemic themes, such as healthcare, technology, infrastructure, energy, education are the domain, indeed, as much of the private sector as by government.  You want it?  Invest in it.  Participate in it.  Allow your leaders to create a playing field upon which your success or failure is determined by your efforts.  But let those legislative institutions make it a fair fight, in which the backyard entrepreneur can be as successful in his realm as the most powerful corporate entity.

I call this “the better mousetrap theory” and for decades I have built quantification of capital and asset allocation based upon demand, momentum, and breadth of social and moral participation.

Going from here.
Challenges are looming, let’s be clear.  The capital markets are frozen and inert, bereft of leadership, direction, or conviction.  Left to their own devices, nations have become jingoistic, isolated.

I talk often of a seminal moment in my lifetime, when Apollo astronauts first circumnavigated the moon in 1968 and broadcast the “Blue Marble” photo of Earth back to us.  So fragile did we all seem.  For me, at least for that moment as a young man, there were no divisions amongst the peoples of our planet.  Indelibly, that image governs my science and moral suasion to this day.

Isolation, inconsiderate behavior, jingoism and me-too capitalism will not reinvigorate the financial markets.  Last week, no one “won,” and everybody “won.”  It is up to us to deploy our capital in a mature way that meets the needs of a young and old population…and a fragile planet that is our craft and safe resting place on that journey.

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