Active investors like to think that it’s alright to take risk as long as commensurate reward is a possibility. Further, they base this analysis upon whatever methodology they employ as long as the data, the systems and the game are fair for all who play. Thus, it is no surprise that last year more money was withdrawn from global equity markets than committed, and that more investors operate upon a short-term trading mentality than a longer macro-themed expression.
Speculators and traders have
pushed in to fill the void created by the absence of “sticky money,” and, in
the process, made a mess of traditional market platforms.
It’s no wonder, though, that
investors are abandoning the Street as a goal fulfillment vehicle. In the past, when people found a company they
really liked they held on to that stock for generations. Not only was the expectation for higher
valuation a given, but there seemed to be a reciprocal expectation on the part
of the company itself that owners (and that’s what shareholders are) would maintain
ownership, in good times and bad, if management demonstrated a moral and fiscal
commitment to its users, its community, and to the overall economic climate.
No longer.
Today, with earnings and
revenues being squeezed by global uncertainty, neither party is willing to
“wait it out” for the duration, opting instead for a day-trade, or one great
quarter, to satisfy the greed in us.
It’s no wonder we have fewer 52 week highs being made, or that the
gradient of capital appreciation is shallowing out, even as we rally towards
benchmark highs.
Immediate risk.
Of course, everything depends
upon one’s framework of observation. If,
in fact, things are becoming more staccato, more contracted in time, then you
might conclude that everything’s ok, “What’s Scotty talking about?”
The key issue for me is the
dissipation of expectations. Turbulence
and uncertainty have always been a part of investing. But they were aberrations, not the norm, once
upon a time. Today, they are
predicate factors to any investment decision, and certainly not part of an
amalgam of factors that lend themselves to long-term, macro strategic planning.
To be sure, new challenges are
part of change. From an investor’s
perspective, current price momentum adds to the prospects for new capital
exposure to equities. Short term
sentiment indicators favor only the magnitudinal extremes which point to imbalanced
odds.
As a statistician I view
these odds as inverse probabilities: the
higher the relative strength integers go, the more likely it becomes for their
momentum to expire, or reverse. Thus, one would like to engage a trend before
it reaches exhaustion not as it reaches maturity.
Defense.
There is no doubt that one can
always find opportunity for investment.
My work has focused upon demographic themes with strong earnings such as
life sciences, biotech, agriculture, potable water, reusable energy, infrastructure
redevelopment, technology, and social services.
That seems like a healthy menu, does it not?
The bottom line is that the
impact of exogenous, short-term events can be mitigated by one’s
science, outlook, and time horizon. But
the divergence in our culture between what is working today and what is likely
to work for the longer term is widening.
This notion of “fast money”
versus “faster disaster” is a debate for our financial times.
No comments:
Post a Comment