Monday, October 17, 2011

Market Commentary for the week of October 17, 2011

Heard this before?
Look out for number one.

Buy on margin.

Zero percent interest rates.

It’s your own darn fault.

The big payoff.

Collateralized Mortgage Obligation.

Free market capitalism.

Chances are your reaction to each, or all, of the above phrases derives from your age, your socio-economic level, your occupation or your moral fabric.  It’s a good bet that at least one of those phrases evokes a visceral, emotional response in addition to whatever fact-based analysis you bring to bear.

In any case, this is the new reality of our time.

While the tech revolution of 2000 produced its share of paradigm changes, nothing so changed the economic landscape as an era of misuse and leverage of the financial system by insiders and outliers alike.  Unfortunately, what we are left with is a decade-past of complex issues, and a decade-forward of extraordinary remediation.  In the meantime, net valuations of portfolios, homes, and personal net worth have been readjusted downwards to a “new normal.”

By the numbers.
For those of us “seniors,” the problems are now owned by the next generations.  For them, it is a striking and overwhelming legacy which, not of their doing, they must attempt to fix.

If asked by a younger person, your son or daughter perhaps, “can it get better?” can you respond with a straight face and without remorse that it might?

I am not a pessimist.  I worry, however, about the effect of our economic transgressions upon the psyche of young adults and children.

Globally, the number of industrial and manufacturing jobs is ceding growth to technology and “service” jobs.  Cities are experiencing population and demographic migration.  One is more likely today to relocate from one’s hometown than to stay.  Yet statistics indicate that more adult children are moving back in with their parents for economic reasons than at any time in the last 60 years.

Move over George Costanza.  You’re not the only one moving back in with Frank and Estelle. 

Get busy.
Some of these demographic shifts are tomorrow’s investment opportunities.  As I have written, sectors such as biopharmaceuticals, agriculture, technology, and alternative energy have become the “industrials” for the next generation.  How long can we wait?

To accelerate these phenomena into trends requires political and fiscal discipline, moral conviction, and monetary commitment.  We’re open for business, but nobody’s home.

The primary trigger to ignite global economic renaissance is psychological will, and an abundance of confidence in the fairness of the system.

Funds?  Yes.
Willpower?  For certain.
Reality?  Not yet.

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