Monday, November 20, 2023

Market Commentary for the week of November 20, 2023

Cornucopia

As the world gets ready to celebrate the holiday season and the New Year it’s also significant to point out the disparities that exist when considering the distribution of natural “gifts” that exist on the planet.  The allocation of natural resources such as food, energy, raw materials, and the industrial capacity to utilize them is not always an equitable equation.

Water-related investing, in particular, is a compellingly misunderstood and under-reported phenomenon.  And yet, the danger of this commodity’s scarcity and/or depletion is one of the most significant headlines of our times.  Further, the investment opportunities related to water recovery, purification, and delivery might be the most impactful capital gains notion of this century.

For several decades, I have been deeply involved in this topic, and others, in the field of “sustainable” socially responsible investing (SRI).  Our Global Water Resources portfolio concept, for example, has a record of significant outperformance compared to its peers.  My research has concentrated upon safe provision of potable water, water treatment (desalinization), and the businesses that are devoted now and in the future to technology in service to these human needs.  Our recommended equity basket contains about 43 companies, various capitalizations, and multiple geographic locations.  Water related businesses run the gamut from Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Basic Materials.  The criteria for inclusion focuses on earnings, price, and relative strength.  The next few decades might represent our best investment alternative amongst the many in our portfolio. 

While pundits are foretelling a global crisis in water access, we believe the essence of the problem is most unique to specific geographic regions.  Comparing water withdrawal rates in various parts of the world, we note an uneven distribution of the problem, the most disturbing of which is in Africa and South America.  Those problems are directly related to poor infrastructure and ineffective government oversight.

In fact, the infrastructure situation is particularly vexing.  Most water systems worldwide were built in the last century and before.  While miles of canals and containment stations need rebuilding now, recent weather catastrophes have made the public painfully aware of the effects of climate change and a disastrous collapse of land and concrete which abut them.

Less is definitely not more

Because mankind depends upon water for survival and commerce there must be a greater sense of urgency to modernize the systems that protect retrieval and potability.

Nearly 80 percent of the planet is comprised of water but less than 1 percent is fresh water or easily accessible.  The remaining supplies are either frozen in (evaporating) oceans or contaminated by industrial and agricultural pollution.  The United Nations posits that only about 10 percent of that 1 percent is fresh product suitable for personal use.

The real problem is that demand has risen while standards have dropped.  Water consumption is multiplying as the population expands.  The need for drinking water could double in the next generation.  Who will step up to remediate the problem; which government, business, or charity will succeed at de-stressing the dual crises of poor quality and limited access?

Water is required to provide for the production of goods and services, as well as sufficient drinking quantities.  (Parenthetically, if countries do begin a transition to nuclear power plants as their abrupt choice for “alternatives”, then additional sources of water will be required as cooling agents).  It is increasingly clear that the future will require more of this precious gift, not less.  If your tap is full and your access is unabated, think about those who must do without when you sit for your celebratory gatherings this holiday season, and be grateful.

                                                                     Happy Thanksgiving

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