Out
of the bunker
Everyone knows by now that the
economy has been profoundly affected by a once-in-a-lifetime viral
pandemic. We must now come to accept
that politics, economics, and health have been indelibly changed. Exactly what those changes are or how they
will unfold in the future is the great mystery.
More people are working from home;
fewer are patronizing business; and technology is evolving to keep pace with
the times. Jobs have been lost and
others created...both at record pace.
Industries are evolving, disintegrating, or closing altogether while
others are only being born. Educational
institutions are finding their way back to “normal”. The recuperation of our personal
relationships is far from complete.
There are examples of how the
generations are responding differently to the crisis. The young have a lifetime to adapt, the older
population has lost a limited number of years to reflect. Either way, these are extraordinary times.
Unfortunately, the health pandemic has
also exacerbated gaps that existed in other areas of our lives...gaps in pay,
wealth, equality, and opportunity.
Finding solutions to these issues is not for the meek or complacent.
As investors ponder the future the
answers can be found in their methodology, their timeline of evaluation, and
their level of patience and perspective.
The Covid outbreak has made everyone more aware of a finite lifespan, as
well as one's place in the world around them.
Menial things and daily gratitude have taken on a whole new meaning.
the
long view
Consumer optimism is still high, but
somehow undirected. Having a day-by-day
approach to things hinders the effectiveness of an investment plan for the
future. Nightly news headlines are not
conducive to building a solid portfolio.
It is vital to take the measure of things from a wider
aperture...earnings, capital appreciation, and asset allocation. Consider that the setbacks we have just
experienced might have a net positive effect upon how we construe things going
forward. If we seize the chance to
refocus it is possible that entrepreneurship and opportunity could flourish for
the next two decades and beyond. Capital
always seeks a vacuum. For all the
concerns about geopolitics, global competition, and sustainability, the search
for comprehensive solutions to the problems of our globe portend a fascinating
investment landscape.
These things are not simply matters
of economics, finance and government.
The fundamental of all society is that people can work together to
benefit each of its members. The answers
lie in our moral compass and commitment to others.
Thus, we see potential in the
emerging markets as well as the mature ones.
Growth and innovation are borderless and class nondescript. Currency deployed effectively will build
infrastructure, feed the hungry, provide for the common defense, educate the
needy, advance technology, and find cures for rare diseases. That looks like a pretty hefty portfolio
alignment to us.
Despite our optimism about the data,
there are always roadblocks to overcome...in the short term and long term. Dips in the market will occur, we can assure
you of that. However, the current angle
of ascent of the economy and the financial markets is strong and probable to
maintain.
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