Sweat-based
profits
In case you haven't
noticed, pounding rain storms and scorching summer temperatures are becoming
more fierce more frequently. While no
one is ready to predict the apocalypse just yet, we are becoming increasingly
concerned from a markets' perspective that the paradigm of our story is
shifting. Just who does benefit from a change
in crop patterns, population and geography shifts, and seasonal dislocations?
This missive is not
about solving the scientific debate being waged by political parties or other
interested parties. Rather, it is about
who is helped by...or hurt by...industrial shifts that have shaped our social
and business evolution since fire was discovered and factories replaced
hand-made goods.
Let us begin with a
small concession: that the last two centuries on planet Earth have seen a
technological alteration in the way things are manufactured and delivered. There need not be any further agreement than
that the odds favor additional changes for corporations.
Fine. Then even a small change has the potential to
dissolve business patterns and create new ones...from healthcare, agriculture,
technology, energy, and transportation.
Surely Wall Street will be paying attention, if they aren't already.
Investors whose
portfolios reflect, or anticipate, these changes should be handsomely
positioned for profit potential.
At any given point in
time there is always a flavor-of-the-month-type approach banking on the
future. But I chose to focus on a
flavor-of-the decade methodology and structure. If not properly diversified, portfolio
returns might seriously be underperforming or underprepared.
One cannot pin all hope
for profit potential upon solving all the issues, all the time, at any given
moment. In contrast, profit in a
changing realm is about neutralizing
downside exposure while creating a harmonious balance amongst the myriad number
of opportunities before us.
For example, what the
Federal Reserve does today, or did last week, is of very little immediate
consequence to a secular obligation that money borrowed and spent goes into
appropriate social, moral, and business baskets. We can debate ad nauseum about the rate
cut's effect upon the stock market. But
in the end, trends are not defined by a 24 hour news cycle.
Imagination
The Earth is not
crumbling, the seas are not shrinking, the skies are not tumbling.....it only
seems that way sometimes. Sure enough,
though, there are granular shifts in climate that require more hours when the
air conditioner is on. Modern
conveniences can address that for us.
One can be nearly
certain that we eventually will need to factor in other modifications, as well. Once again, this is not about scientific deliberation
over climate change. It is, instead,
about what we observe with the naked eye and how prepared we are to address
ourselves and our fellow citizens to relieve their discomfort. The history of mankind is really about how we
explore the boundaries of our control; to move those limits beyond conventional
wisdom; and to develop the systems and philosophies that enable progress to be
made. This has historically been true in
medicine, science, technology, education, agriculture, energy, and
elsewhere....and will continue to be so.
In this era of
stand-by, instantaneous news it requires vision, courage, and innovation to set
new standards of examination and leadership.
To be fair, the
skeptics have their right to deny. We
are not easily going to reconcile two opposing points of view. But ever since we evolved from bonfires to
smokestacks, smokestacks to nuclear energy, nuclear to solar and wind, there
hasn't been an investment opportunity missed by educated traders and savvy
investors to profit from the change.
Why should we stop
now?
No comments:
Post a Comment