It goes without saying that as the global market averages roar into "new high" territory, relative strength integers are indicating the probability of disintegration of momentum at the top. Thus, the question for many has become "did we just miss the optimal entry point for stocks?"
But
the question of "if" is not as significant as the fear, exuberance,
trepidation, and expectation with which it is posed. A sense of uncertainty that investors feel
about entering/exiting the risk markets is analogous to the heart-stopping
angst that NASA engineers feel as they await communications from a spacecraft
that hurtles through space during second stage propulsion. While they may suspect that everything will
be alright, they nevertheless sit anxiously at their workstations waiting for
certainty of that fact.
Similarly
(and I know the metaphor is a poor one), the disparity between market chaos versus
metaphysical certitude is what allows for a Brexit-type
inverted market response followed by manic buying sprees....just the pattern we
have seen in the past two weeks.
Calm
after the storm
I
believe, as I have stated before, that we must return to basics of fundamental
analysis coupled with numerical quantitative approbation to release the tension
in the room, both in good times and bad. Empirical data says that fundamentals are
improving and creating secular shifts in wages, employment, spending, inventory
expansion, and bottom-line profitability.
Take it with a grain of salt, or cynicism if you may, but the markets
are responding to a new post-credit-crisis continuum.
Mind
you, these changes are not heroic nor are they something we haven't experienced
before, but their staying power has nevertheless fueled a market expansion that
has lengthened the amplitude of this current bull cycle.
Interestingly,
it is just as confusing that what we think of as "traditional"
engines of economic recovery, such as consumer
spending and confidence levels, have been
lagging other factors which have, in fact, contributed to significant economic sustainability. Last week we highlighted what we believe to
be the single most important factor to that sustainability: low interest rates. A decline in rates, while temporarily a boon
for borrowers, is the equivalent of "losing money" and opportunity,
while undermining wealth appreciation for a generation of savers. Global austerity programs and steady-handed
managed capital allocations have accounted for capital formation in the private
and public markets at an alarmingly accelerated pace, replacing the traditional
middle-man lending function of the banks.
Breaking
those gains down by category, two of the more noteworthy appreciation patterns
have occurred in the financial sector and utilities. Of course, those groupings were also hit the hardest
by the credit crisis, so they had the most distance from which to recover. We
must be on our guard, though, that these companies not only service the needs
and objectives of their shareholders as they generate capital gains and new sales,
but that they are also paying homage to the desires of their customers, too.
Climbing
out
Allowing
for a few exceptions, my overall bias is still to be "long"
stocks. But because tensions are running
so high...and stochastic integers are rising so rapidly...we must be aware of
fundamental and quantitative factors that could change our macro outlook. Right
now, absent any suitable alternatives in the fixed income markets, we have to
make do with prudent asset allocation, careful equity selection, and a healthy
(realistic) skepticism about the sustainability of purely news-driven rallies.
Being
critical of events emanating from Britain is counterproductive. Everyone knew
the brew was stewing long before the vote occurred. Becoming agitated or overly aggressive as a
result, creates a false equivalency.
We are certainly not naive about long term demographic
issues, or how the global commercial situation might play out. Acts
of terrorism and random violence like the kind we saw last week in France
should make us stop and think about how we value the little things, and where,
exactly, portfolio issues fall within that hierarchy of priorities. Yet, to expect all positive trade and industry
news suddenly to become polluted by current events outside of our span of
control is also just as reactionary.
There
continues to be every possibility for investors to build wealth and security if
they only have the patience...and discipline...to look in the right spaces.
No comments:
Post a Comment