Monday, March 21, 2016

Market Commentary for the week of March 21, 2016

When is "an earning" not an earning?
In this post-Great Recession (2008) period we have seen a remarkable dependence upon accounting mechanics and alchemy to try and rebuild both the infrastructure of, and consumer confidence in, the global economy.  It wasn't unusual, for example, for companies in difficult straits to lay off employees and cut other expenses, instantaneously producing a rise in "earnings".  Combined with massive stimulus and diligent changes in fiscal directions, monetary policy "experts" sought to stem the tide of intrinsic deficiencies that brought us to the brink of insolvency.  Unfortunately, we still stand at an interesting confluence of aggressive financial strategies and profound disaffection and mistrust of the players.  To some, it seems as if the experts are as much in the dark about competent systemic solutions as are the rest of us.

But aggressive policies and actions are a necessity to help assuage our concerns and to begin rebuilding the capitalist infrastructure that too often fails because of its own reliance upon the profit motivation at all costs.  We need, I believe, a third leg to the solution: moral policymakers who can guide the hand of those others in control towards more informed and compassionate solutions.

Why there is so little attention paid to social morality in the capitalist structure is a question not many are willing to risk their reputation to answer.  But it makes perfectly good sense to consider that fixing falling bridges or polluted water systems is equally as valuable to the equation as are net profits and EBITDA multipliers.

Are socially responsible expenditures any more "expensive" than any other costs?

There are reasons given by our financial and political leaders for failures to address altruistic investing.  In large measure, the justification given is that the return on equity is too difficult to calculate, or sometimes simply not worth the effort.

They find no need to "study" the issues that might make life worth living and more wholesome.  In fact, the last recession was the inevitable by-product of that laziness and an egregious exploitation of an era of greed and financial chicanery.  By their own admission, policy makers contributed to the failures by looking the other way or by rescinding rules and regulations that provided for the oversight of avarice.  Such is the lifecycle we seem to endure every financial generation as the pendulum of prosperity inevitably swings from left to right, then back again.

What constitutes an "earning"?
Unlike the policy makers, who seem befuddled by the right objectives, the general public knows if things pass "the sniff test".  Millions of people were displaced by the recession, and today stand in opposition to the status quo which perpetuates a myth of wealth concentration in one geography, one sector, or one social strata.  Perhaps the credit crash played a role in galvanizing that latter school of thought, but I think not.  Common sense cannot be impeded by foolishness, and too many of us sensed what was happening even if we had no intuition about how to stop it.

In nearly predictable fashion, most of the market's convulsions earlier this year seemed syncopated, timed just right to take down any ardor that might have developed for stocks in 2015.  Yet, despite all the worries and fright that developed, the severe sell-off has nearly been erased, thanks to steadier heads and strict fundamental analysis bringing money back in at a cautious pace.  While we wrote that it was wise to be vigilant about stocks "at the top", we nonetheless saw...and still do...reasons to be optimistic about the recovery's staying power.  Primarily, some of the "accounting concerns" we spoke about above have been supplanted by greater consumer confidence and higher demand.

So now the solutions (for politicians, scientists, entrepreneurs, and educators) are becoming clearer.  Systemic factors that produce unbridled, and oftentimes misdirected, greed are not the cause of one person, but are perceived as unwelcome irritation to the steady hand that guides financial markets.  An emerging political consensus is coalescing in the United States around the notion that that we all play a role in the success of capitalism and the financial well-being of each other.  An informed and motivated populous shouldn't shy away from its responsibilities for supervision.

The creation of earnings and responsible outcomes is not an either/or proposition.  It's simply a function of building trust, fair play, equitable distribution of opportunity, and conscience back into the conversation.

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