Momentum is always a profitable investment strategy. As the market gets heaved upon by various fundamental and technical issues, more investors are wondering from where or if there exists any evidence of sustainable upside profit potential? I believe a case must be made for long-term social demographics as the first place to begin identifying an improvement in the odds for market outperformance.
Day
after day, the Dow Jones has been swinging sharply by hundreds of points. Last week, for example, it wasn't unusual to
see intraday volatility of nearly two to three percentage points, all this on
the heels of news from China, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere that
default and economic slowdown could wreak havoc upon global rebuilding.
Besides
focusing upon micro, inter-day factoids as justification for buying-in or
selling-off, let me remind my readers to consider what investing really
means...or was intended to mean.
Our
planet faces many issues which actually conjoin our disparate interests and
cultures rather than to create separation between us. Amongst those challenges about which I have
previously written, the most pressing is the
scarcity of water. My database, ArlingtonEconometrics, has carefully
screened through a coterie of names connected to this topic and identified a
nexus of stocks that I believe has a statistical probability of accomplishing
two things: (1) magnifying capital gains opportunity, and (2) providing
solutions to a difficult social challenge.
Retreat,
or step in?
The
problem really emanates not so much from a scarcity of the commodity (after
all, the planet's surface is 75% covered in water mass), but in how our
existing supply lines match up to critical and specific needs for access. We are seeing an historical shift in regions
that have had, but no longer, a surplus of supply for their citizens.
As
the crisis expands, we've noticed a concerted effort by some businesses to
develop the technology to address it. However, at the end of the day, the
solution has been unmasked as not just a technical or regional manifestation,
but a political one, as well. Legal claims
for jurisdiction over "ownership" of the commodity is the laughable stuff
of ignorance, greed, and authority.
Water might be "the new oil", but it, too, has not proven to
be immune from the territorial or financial enticements that have plagued the
oil industry for decades.
Agriculture,
another of our designated social demographics, is also dependent upon fresh
water. Without arable farmland and
potable drinking water, we potentially face decades of famine, warfare, indigent
migration, prolific disease, and, possibly, death. How much more of this can populations
tolerate before confronting the problem?
While conservation is just one of the focuses of water scarcity, science
must also seek to find new sources.
Obviously,
there is no "one size fits all" answer to this complex social
dilemma. My research quest, delineated
by companies with earnings acceleration, current or potential price
performance, and relative strength quotients, concentrates its focus upon
comprehensive solutions to filtration/desalinization; commercial use;
hydroelectricity; construction and treatment; testing; and irrigation. By aggregating these services and modalities you
come to appreciate the enormity of the potential gain, both remuneratively and
socially.
The
conundrum, as noted, is that there is both too little water as well as too
much. But for those unfortunates who tonight
may be going to bed hungry, thirsty, impoverished, or ill, the complexity,
timing, and magnitude of Wall Street's potential response rings hollow. Too little, too late? Perhaps not, if we get
moving now.
For
all the reasons that water is, or will be a "popular" investment
theme, the most significant motivating force is the opportunity to do well by
our fellow citizens who also inhabit this "big blue marble" alongside
us.
As
I re-read this text, I can almost hear the uninitiated saying, "great, but what about the carnage in
my 401-k today? This pie-in-the sky
stuff doesn't help me with that!!" My answer?
Investing involves risk and volatility.
Get used to it. But if you wish
to suppress the uncertainty and constant harangue that 24-hour business news
channels inflict upon you, try building perspective into the endeavor. Your money can actually help solve problems and grow
your portfolio, concurrently.
In
this unique instance, my database has provided insight into money flow, capital
gains probabilities, and a rare glimpse into a better future.
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