The potential direct impact of economic turmoil in global markets (EU) upon the US economy and corporate profitability is relatively small, although the degree of volatility the S&P is experiencing in recent weeks underscores worries that many investors still harbor from the last recession. As a result, I am starting to see a "flight to quality", away from pure value-oriented speculation. What differentiates this cycle, however, is that the market as a whole still retains positive earnings acceleration.
Memories
of a Lehman-led catastrophe still linger near the surface. Thus, a key question as the markets
transition into the summer is whether we will
choose to focus upon negative contagion or positive cyclical activity?
Without
question, the work at rebuilding confidence, profits, and portfolio
appreciation has been difficult and time consuming. We've come a long way since 2008. But the backdrop for the next several years
is improving, and nowhere near the crisis levels we faced prior to or during
the credit collapse. Capital is flowing
more freely and the fundamentals are quite different this time.
To
be sure, there are global financial crises still to be resolved,
not the least of which is Greece's default possibility and the damage that
might inflict upon its current EU partners.
But, by design, the risk exposure of the rest of the world to this, and
other financial current events, is peripheral.
Nonetheless,
professional traders (and corporate leaders) are concerned that a disruption of
any kind in global cash flows might level a death blow to corporate earnings
and expenditures here in the United States and elsewhere. I disagree with the severity of predicting
that outcome, however. There are enough
safeguards built into the EU and US monetary system to offset a temporary
buildup of fiscal, monetary, or political pressures, were they to occur.
Where's
the correction?
My
quantitative data indicates that any headwinds created by the "Common
Market" crisis are not strong enough to derail the course of statistical
progress developed during the past five years.
Measures of liquidity and austerity that were effected across the globe
as a result of 2008-2009 are broader and more durable than any rough patch we
might currently be experiencing.
In
fact, far from being impeded by "overhead supply", we are seeing a
powerful initial upleg in pricing power, whose inflection point is confirmed by
performance in tangible assets such as real estate, commodities, and
foodstuffs. These points usually occur concurrently with
a turnaround in cycles, from downtrend to uptrend. Obviously, then, I would also expect to see
pricing power reflected in earnings acceleration patterns, assuming demand for these assets remains robust.
A
key issue for the economy and the stock markets is whether we will maintain
increases in corporate profits which so far have been quite good.
None
less than the Chairperson of the US Federal Reserve gave quite specific
indication this past week that the prospects for inflation, and concurrent rate
hikes, are less a worry than maintaining the "solvency" of a growing
economy. They at the Fed, like many
others, argue that the risks of "tightening" too soon outweigh the
risks of tightening too late.
While
it might always be prudent to anticipate corrections in the market,
particularly from these lofty levels, it is also wise not to fight the current
trend obstinately. Thus, our current
asset allocation into equities has steadily been increasing over the past five
years even as we have been cautioning against behaviors that are either too
exuberant or too speculative. Even with
the prospect of "exogenous" events redirecting the current trend, any
pause would not be sufficient to stall our current recovery.
It
will take extraordinary patience to evaluate and persevere through the next
upleg in stocks. Worrying is always part
of the game. Nonetheless, I remain
statistically positive about profits and economic sustainability for the next cycle's
duration. For now, our conclusion is that a pending interest
rate rise should not be negatively impactful upon our macro-view for owning
equities in leading demographic sectors.
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