Power
Shift
When
2014 began, few thought that the markets had the ability or the urgency to achieve
yet another year of record high valuations.
Overall, however, most investors would agree that their expectations
have been more than fully realized. My
research sees stronger fundamental underpinnings for market performance, even
acknowledging any potential economic risks on the horizon. This generation's "Great Recession"
has slowly become a financial rebound of historical proportions. Never mind that the "net return" on
equities during the past six years has been less than five percent...peak to
peak...clients are jumping in full bore, or so it seems.
So
what could possibly be the problem?
Two
things stand out immediately. First, the
percentage of persons who actually own stocks has dropped precipitously over
the past decade. Burned by crises in
dot.com and the housing/credit markets, investors are loathe to play the
game. In effect, the greed and
recklessness of Wall Street has single-handedly managed to alienate a large
percentage of its current and potential constituents, such that many would
rather leave altogether than try to compete with computers, traders, or worse,
crooks.
Secondly,
geopolitical unrest and domestic political inertia have depressed investor's
psyche and flow of capital sufficient to shut off a major source of innovation
and ideas that once galvanized great societies to create scientific wonders,
brick and mortar infrastructure, social institutions, and moral goodness.
All
is not lost, however. We simply need to
re-boot political and social willpower to create a fair and equitable playing
field for commerce. A classic imbalance
between "what is" and "what
it should be" is tilting the
landscape towards inertia, in spite of the fact that the stock market is making
record highs. If we are to believe the
widely held theory of "trickle down" economics, then those who
benefit most from the market's largesse must step up their activities in and
contributions towards education, energy, economics, ethics, and charity. One should not be surprised to hear that, for
the disaffected, they feel the tail is wagging them!! Look, no one begrudges the markets doing
well. But if we look back on the
previous two years (post recession) and realize that all we did was to widen
the gap between the affluent and the poor, and then the market's recovery might
have been for naught. For too long , we
have equated the success of the financial bourses and our own economic
well-being with how many things we acquire, a limitless demand for disposable
consumption.
Markets
The
flight away from consumption might be this bull market's
greatest legacy. Today, greater
efficiency and cost savings punctuate the culture of a larger percentage of
companies that trade on global exchanges. One might correctly posit the notion that
there is a direct correlation between the advent of computers and a steady
decline in the cost of doing business.
The erosion in energy prices worldwide, for example, is not an
inadvertent event, but rather amongst other factors a direct link between a shift
from heavy machinery, exclusively, to computing power. In this regard, we observe that access to
wealth and power within the citizenry is getting broader, not shallower. The migration of technological efficiency
into business is this generation's hyperlink for social and economic change.
As
processes and technology improve, not just in energy production but across a
spectrum of businesses, so too will the probability of capital gains and
profitability. Signs are already there
that the recession has bottomed out. Our
best economic, scientific, and political minds are now searching for creative
alternatives to finding and building wealth.
Changing demographics are altering the landscape in profound ways. The world's aging population is a factor in
the creation of life saving medicines, and the growth in pharmaceutical and
healthcare industries. Residential
migration to the cities imposes a declining burden upon rural communities,
while placing more emphasis upon urban matters such as efficient
automobiles, modern transportation, newer
schools, and energy efficient buildings.
The "new economy" will need civil engineers and financial accountants. The cost of retraining and educating the
workforce is an issue our political leaders must address and finance. Gridlock is no longer an option.
Anecdotal
evidence suggests that the public and its leaders are starting to "get
it". There is momentum in certain market
sectors that is having a spillover effect upon other sectors. Beyond the statistics and data, the
conversation is getting more positive.
For
example, while we know that the current decline in energy prices is having a
positive effect upon corporate profitability and trade data, its anecdotal
impact also can be felt in households and boardrooms as spending in retail and
other discretionary activities accelerates.
Pricing, which has always had an influence upon gross domestic product (GDP),
is moving in favor of consumers. Last
year's retail sales and durable goods orders (inventory growth) slowly improved
from the year prior. Thus, more
aggressive market sectors are seeing a greater influx of investment capital.
Most
of the market's attention is focused upon equities, but we also have a keen
interest in the bond market and the future direction of interest rates. While it may be a "foregone
conclusion" that austerity packages must unwind at some point, it is our
particular concern the manner and rate of monetary tightening. The fundamentals are in place to support a 3%
ten year Treasury bond yield, but it is the journey getting there that has my
attention the most. Letting interest
rates float is a delicate undertaking, and we must trust that the Federal
Reserve has its finger on the pulse of the economy with great care. To reduce portfolio volatility, we have
already begun to shorten portfolio bond maturities or to sell appreciated bond
positions and to redeploy assets into other asset classes.
Strategy
One of the ways my proprietary tools are able to isolate economic changes is by quantifying money flow from source to target. We anticipate this quarter to be heavy with activity in Industrials, Basic Materials, and Technology. In addition, those sectors in which efficiencies are creating capital gains, like alternative energy and biotech, have a strong bias in our models. As funny as it may sound, an odd coupling between raw materials and computers now fit together like hand-in-glove!!
Volatility
is part of the investment game. The VIX
(volatility) index had been especially active at the end of last year. October's market swoon was a bit of a jolt to
those who thought the bull market would never go down. But interestingly enough, the psychological
transition that lower equity prices afforded them was a boon for stock
performance at the end of the year and going into 2015. We see enough of a combination
of conservative and speculative money going into selected sectors to justify
our expectation for a continuation of the current short cycle advance into the
first quarter of the year.
This
is what markets and economies do. They
go from up to down, and down to back up again, sometimes in a linear (straight
line) fashion, more often parabolic.
What we see is that declines tend to inspire new generations of
solutions. Usually, during those declines,
societies adapt by doing more with less, creating technology and inspiration in
the process. Then, after a few decades
of growth, markets fall back down again from the weight of the excesses, greed
and neglect that have been created. When
the headwinds are at their greatest, the pack separates into the haves and the
have-nots.
It is at our most bountiful times that we need to pay attention to our social conscience. If not, when the bad times inevitably occur, we could wind up with a moral and financial deficit, a time of extreme recalibration...that curiously looks a lot like the precipice that is January, 2015.
Conclusion
Current trends, although slightly exaggerated, are confirming the likelihood for a continuation in the bull market, but certainly with a "duller edge" than in the previous two years. Earnings that derive from consumer demand are becoming more sustainable than those which are crafted from accounting alchemy. Consumers are emerging from their shell, but slowly and cautiously. This, while still reeling from the after- effects of a decade and a half of Wall Street's bad habits.
Our
work focuses not so much on the day-to-day gyrations of market mania, but on a quantification
of cycle movements within a longer macro demographic. As a result, we feel safe in
predicting that 2015 will see a steady migration from laggards to leaders and
that sentiment will improve for the future.
Every asset class and sector has its individual merits, but the rest of
the year should be a rebalancing of leadership from defensive equities to
aggressive and innovative opportunities in Biotech, Energy, Food and
Agriculture, Ecology, and Infrastructure.
The remaining questions to be answered for 2015 are whether higher stock prices place too great a burden upon historical earnings acceleration patterns (P/E) for markets to continue to perform, and whether higher interest rates might wreck the magnitude of the gains we already have achieved.
Suggested
Balanced Account Asset Allocation Q1, 2015:
Equity
65%/ Fixed Income 15%/ Cash 20%
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