Monday, July 30, 2012

Market Commentary for the week of July 30, 2012

Terrifying.
Our collective mood is souring, particularly in light of falling wages, increased competition for jobs, portfolio (net worth) depreciation, and daily news about politics, terrorism, and business corruption.  Where’s the good news?

As a former professional athlete, I embrace the notion of competition, and all that it implies.  But I shudder to think that the feeling of disconnect we sometimes feel from others is borne from a struggle to maintain individuality.  At all costs, we are taught to succeed at the expense of others.  We feel threatened by those who have what we want, or wish to have what we have.  The benefits of our economy are bountiful, yet we feel averse to collaboration, sealing our destiny by our own efforts, not those of the team.

For what?  Respect, money, fame?  Is it better to be different, or difficult, than to cooperate?

Although each of us may have different empathies, different leanings, the variations don’t surpass the level of being human, the capacity to experience the same basic emotions and sensitivities.

In business, everyone searches for an advantage.  Not often enough, however, do they distinguish between projects that “get it right,” which devote resources to a common good.  Those who can sort out the complexities of tough issues are more likely to generate not only profit but good will, as well.  Those firms which understand the dynamics of inclusion and moral good leave a longer-lasting footprint on global business and society.

Quick, think of a name of a company that you believe leaves such a legacy.

Most positive moral qualities are also associated with good earnings and strong share valuation.  Although a “feel-good” test is not a strict investment methodology, it is a good adjunct to any science we might impose upon global markets.

Closing the gap.
Although corporate Darwinism is the essence of trial and error capitalism, there are no doubt other social imperatives which lead to success.  As I mentioned last week, demographic shifts create a needs-based capital structure that can cure diseases, build scientific advancements, educate a citizenry, remodel infrastructure, recreate technology for our times, and change a psychological dynamic of inertia to momentum.

Concomitant with such choices is a need for strong government, transacting fiscal policy to match the will of the common good.  The potential to shift a capital structure lies either with the willingness of the private sector to do so, or a politico that sees the financial and social benefits of making it so.  In either case, fostering political rivalry does little to achieve either goal.

As a portfolio manager, it is exciting to think of the potential in alternative energy, biosciences, hydroponics and agriculture, technology, etc.  We have the power to enter a world of plentitude and transformation.  The numbers can be either “smart” or despicable.  The benefits can be too numerous to quantify.

None of this means that the global marketplace is about to take off.  Granted, we are not nearing a global collapse, but neither are we laying the financial or psychological foundation for shared benevolence.  Dysfunction, and strife abound.  The sluggishness we feel is by our own making.

The world is rich, in culture, resources, talent and hope.  Unfortunately, we also have an abundance of predators building their own exit strategy.  I have hope that the reluctant become the strong, and embark on a collective hunt for prosperity whose psychic and remunerative reward generates the next secular bull upleg.

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