Monday, March 19, 2012

Market Commentary for the week of March 19, 2012

Blameless.
Owning something used to mean stability and opportunity.  Equity stakes, like stock or one’s home, were the “key to success,” remember?  The dream was passed on from one generation to the next.

Ownership was also thought to be the conservative course.  No gambling here, possession was the least risky thing to do.  Manifest destiny was easily encapsulated in one’s bounty of toys, hopefully paid for.

Indeed, our country flourished during the post-war (WW2) period, as home ownership, small business entrepreneurship, and stocks and bonds became part of a ritualistic dossier everyone was expected to have.  The government created and supported programs for equity to flourish.  We were also encouraged to “own” our education, and to flow into capitalism well-armed and financially flush.  Carried to its extreme, it was the right idea for the right time and the right confluence of circumstances.

As we witness now, however, this covenant became a recipe for near-calamitous results.  The strains on individuals, households, and our financial institutions were impossible to forestall.  Economic brinksmanship drove economies and families into convulsions of panic and fear that spun “conservatism” into outright “risk.”

What once was a reward for economic success became a millstone around our necks.  Stock portfolios, which were never intended to go straight up, all of a sudden depreciated, slowly at first then more severely.  Home values decelerated from their never-ending upwards capital gains of decades prior.  One’s income was no longer enough.  Leverage un-leveraged.  A tacit promise was broken.

Accompanying this capital erosion came a psychological default.  Investors looked around and discovered they couldn’t afford all their “toys.”  Further, we were left to question whether it was all worth it; the torture, the envy, the guilt.

As markets gyrated we felt our self-worth, as well as our net worth, gyrate along with them.

As long as the markets survived, so too would we.  We put more money to work, at greater leverage.  Financial institutions cajoled us into more synthesis, straw into gold.  You were less-than-ordinary if you didn’t participate.  And who wants only to be “ordinary?”

What is “rich?”
Who’s to blame?  Government bought into the myth.  So too did our institutions.  Ownership, after all, was supposed to be without risk.  How did depreciation happen?

I maintain that the deal wasn’t a fair fight. 

If money is available we take it.  If reward is dangled in front of us we go for it.  It’s human nature.  And yet, the alchemy of turning tangible reward into mysterious losses is as old as the swindle, itself.  When we are faced with a greed-driven opportunity, we typically lose.  It’s simply a mater of evaluating the choices.  The house usually wins.

Entrepreneurship and risk-taking is part of capitalism, we know that and accept it.  Inventiveness and creativity are not only wealth drivers, they are good for society.  But whomever controls the knowledge, can also mete out its rewards, in parcels he or she sees fit.

We should not try to mitigate the consequences of a free market, only to be aware.  But sometimes, below the fertile fields, the consequences are intergenerational, hardly noticeable until something bad happens generations later.

We are all driven to succeed.  What distinguishes us from one another is how we define, and execute, the value and meaning of “success.”

No comments: