Monday, April 11, 2011

Market Commentary for the week of April 11, 2011

Wrong or right?

Every New Year, every new calendar quarter in fact, brings a heightened sense of anticipation about market performance.  In its proper perspective, we have a unique demarcation that allows us both to look back and to look forward.  Whether we are “licking our wounds” from a beating we took previously, or rebalancing our assets and expectations for future success, investing is by its nature a regenerative endeavor, always filled with hope.

That is why I find it almost comical that day-traders, hedge fund managers and alternative strategists calibrate their successes, or failures, by the minute, day, or month.  That type of mad money investing is a parody of itself, a cliché of the meaning of investing.  For most of us, asset allocation, portfolio management and market research are glacial undertakings, whose success might be quantified by double-digit integers, but whose time-line could be inter-generational.  Indeed, to build a level of confidence, trust, and execution of a client’s objectives, a longer period of evaluation is a prerequisite.

Fast money my a--!!

The casual observer or participant in the financial markets gets excited by daily sidebars and exogenous events he sees on the local news or network business programming.  They become exorcized by the excitement of anything that appears to generate movement.  They disparage inaction as being ineffective.  They also compare “slow-moving” unfavorably to “fast-paced.” 

I have no problem specifically with anyone of these persons.

But, clearly, they don’t populate the world of high-net-worth, transgenerational money management that I and many of my colleagues do.

They are entitled to their fun.  But like the tortoise and the hare, their actions are sometimes antithetical to their objectives.  Sometimes, their efforts can be harmful not only to themselves but to the markets at-large.

It’s about consistency.

Professional investment advisors understand the essence of solid due-diligence, research and scientific method.  They appreciate the tectonic pace of their craft, and hope to gather no more than their share of coincidental movements within the market.

Rather than aspiring to that first 3/8ths of a securities movement, our hope is to frame the proper asset allocation so as to capture (overweight) the prevailing trend while underweighting the risks inherent overall.  It becomes a 3 year horizon; 15 year horizon; 30 year horizon or more; not a 3 minute, 15 hour, or 30 day one.

Likewise, we don’t have to get caught up with the angst of getting a hit, or striking out each time we allocate investment funds.  Our true value is the net long-term accretion of a client’s net-worth, not the cocktail party style trade-du-jour.  Our lives, and those of our clients, are not defined by little doses of adrenaline.  We simply persist, sometimes under the radar, to live another day and to perfect our methodology.

Some might see these thoughts as antiquated, not in keeping with our technological times.  I’ll put my track record and methodology against anybody, and have for decades, and more often than not usually win without the hoopla or fuss that most casual enthusiasts seek.

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